Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/20/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

We have seen more harvest progress this week, but some are running out of beans that are ready. From what I have gathered, many folks are pleased with the yields of the early beans being in the mid 50’s. They do feel the later planting and later maturity beans will have suffered more from the dryness. Speaking of dryness, the beans were coming off sub 8% moisture in spots. The corn crop is also getting abnormally dry as some are seeing moisture as low as 11%. Yields, from what I have heard in my area, are in that 170 to 180 bushels / acre range. There are also concerns with the later planted corn being negatively impacted. Export sales yesterday were great again for corn and beans with China again being a major buyer of soybeans. We are still seeing poor river levels on the Mississippi and they are forecasted to get worse next week. The fed did lower interest rates by one half of a percent this week, which was expected by the market. According to the weather people, we're forecasted to get some rains at the beginning of the week. They are predicting anywhere from 3 tenths to 1.5 inches, so place your bets folks, and we’ll see what happens. Thanks, and have a great weekend.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

We are still seeing a good amount of NC beans coming in, but they are coming in hot off of the field with very low moisture, between 8-10%. Starting to see some NC corn roll in, with VOM levels close to or at 0 ppm. Moistures off the field for NC corn are looking right around the 15% level. With the dry weather, bean harvest progress is slightly above expectations, but with a hit to yields.

Rain is looking to be in the forecast for next week, which could fare helpful for adding some moisture to beans still out in the field. Many are hoping to get those test weights back up slightly. It is likely that these will be the highest yielding beans of the season, due to early rains. Double crop and late planted beans could be a different story. Dryer conditions are expected following the front later next week, setting up a good foundation to get back into the fields.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

Harvest has been in full swing this week. We are seeing both corn and soybeans coming across the scale. The soybeans we are receiving are the driest that I have ever graded. We have been seeing corn come in with very good quality and not having to run the dryer, which is much different than last year. If this keeps up, the only limiting factor will be space.

The markets have seemed to find a range over the last month. It may not be a range that the farmer is happy with, but it is better prices than we saw late August. It is to be determined how much this late dry weather has taken off the top of the crop across the Midwest. I doubt if we have that answer until January. As for prices going forward, I am of the opinion that it all depends on the South American crop. If they get planted and have a good growing season it will be hard to see prices rally this winter as we have more than enough corn and soybeans around the world today. This is a wait and see story as they are just getting a good start on planting.

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. Harvest has started for the fall of 2024. We are seeing some of the early beans starting to come off. Moisture has been super dry. I would put our average inbound moisture around 10.5%. I am hearing yields somewhere between 50-60 bpa. The early beans seemed to get the moisture when they needed them. The verdict is still out on the later beans. Just a little corn coming in so far, but moisture is dry on it as well. We had some come in right out of the field at 13.5%. I was down at the FSR this week and the corn they were harvesting was 12.5%. That’s hard to believe.

Markets continue to have harvest pressure on them. Both corn and beans are lower today as I write this. South America has been dry, but forecasts are calling for the rains to start back up again by the first part of October. If that doesn't happen, then I think we could see a pop in these markets. But that’s what it is going to take to see any rally in my opinion. With a 2+ billion bushel corn carryout and a 550 million bushel bean carryout we will need an issue somewhere in the world to help rally these markets.

Looks like we may have a little rain the first of the week but then it will dry out again to let harvest resume. Have a great weekend!!!